The question here is, “What are the odds”? And, “What raises the odds?” As you can tell that odds increase with the numbers of companies you start. Even then, before doing this research I would have thought that an IPO-ed startup CEO would have a more that 50% success rate with her next startup. But no, not so high.
What does this teach us? There are at least two ways to read this data. One – the pessimistic way – the odds are low. The other – the entrepreneurial way – even the veterans do not have a 100% tried-and-true strategy for startup success, so this puts me, a first-time entrepreneur on about the same level as the veteran.
Which way do you prefer?
Here is a question I have to those who really want to know the odds.
If the success rate of your first startup is 12%, your second 20% and your third 30% (assuming you took the second startup public – which is a VERY big assumption. Let’s make it to keep it simple.) – then how many startups does one need to startup to make their success rate over 50% – which means more likely to succeed than to fail?
Let me know how to solve this. Thank you.
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